June job numbers are good. But how strong is the US economy?

The recently released jobs report for the month of June showed that the US added 224,000 jobs. Economists and Republicans alike welcomed this number. In May, employment numbers only increased by 72,000 jobs. Many economists worried about this apparently steep decline.

Since America is currently enjoying its longest economic expansion ever, one can reasonably wonder: Just how strong is the US economy? And how long can the current expansion last?

Recovery vs. Expansion

Actually, one school of thought says we are not in a period of unparalleled expansion. That holds true even if the government’s statistics seem to back this observation. But in fact, the current expansion really started in 2017, not 2009, meaning the expansion is only in its third year.

Since economic expansions tend to last 5 to 7 years, we should enjoy a few more years of growth until the next recession finally arrives.

Supporting this view, one can argue that the very weak recovery of the US economy from the Great Recession really lasted until 2016. During that eight-year period, economic growth averaged just over the historically anemic 2%. That number reflects the growth rate of recovery, not an economic expansion.