June job numbers are good. But how strong is the US economy?

Michael Busler
4 min readJul 11, 2019

The recently released jobs report for the month of June showed that the US added 224,000 jobs. Economists and Republicans alike welcomed this number. In May, employment numbers only increased by 72,000 jobs. Many economists worried about this apparently steep decline.

Since America is currently enjoying its longest economic expansion ever, one can reasonably wonder: Just how strong is the US economy? And how long can the current expansion last?

Recovery vs. Expansion

Actually, one school of thought says we are not in a period of unparalleled expansion. That holds true even if the government’s statistics seem to back this observation. But in fact, the current expansion really started in 2017, not 2009, meaning the expansion is only in its third year.

Since economic expansions tend to last 5 to 7 years, we should enjoy a few more years of growth until the next recession finally arrives.

Supporting this view, one can argue that the very weak recovery of the US economy from the Great Recession really lasted until 2016. During that eight-year period, economic growth averaged just over the historically anemic 2%. That number reflects the growth rate of recovery, not an economic expansion.

Eliminating regulations and cutting tax rates helps the US economy

In 2017, the removal of growth-stifling and counter-productive regulations coupled with the anticipation of future growth-inducing actions created an overall optimism that really started the expansion. Growth increased to 2.5%. Then, in 2018, Congress repealed the growth-stifling portions of the Dodd-Frank law.

The burdensome regulations placed on banks by Dodd-Frank were meant to eliminate predatory lending. The problem was that the restrictions were so severe that they reduced all bank lending. When banks are not lending, economic growth slows. The repeal tended to increase economic growth.

Also effective in 2018, Congress cut taxes for all Americans and for corporations. The middle-class portion of the tax cut stimulated demand from consumers. The upper class and corporate tax cut stimulated supply from businesses. In 2018, growth finally reached 3%, a rate not seen since…

Michael Busler

Dr. Busler is an economist and a public policy analyst. He is a Professor of Finance at Stockton University. His op-ed columns appear in Townhall, Newsmax.