Still no recession for the Trump Economy, despite mixed economic signals

Recent data indicates the manufacturing sector is slowing. The service sector is growing slowly, and the stock market has been tanking recently. Interest rates are falling and unemployment is at a historic low. Yet there’s still no recession in sight. Even with all the mixed economic signals, we’ve been getting. So with this contradictory barrage of facts and speculation bombarding the daily news wires, what’s really ahead for the US economy?

Last week’s data indicated that economic activity is slowing. The fear is that if growth continues to slow, the US could enter into a recession. That seems like the natural progression since the last recession ended more than 10 years ago. That’s much longer the average time between recessions. With the manufacturing sector indicating contraction and growth slowing in the service sector, a recession seems inevitable.

Fortunately, we are at least two years away from a recession.

According to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index for September, the reading of 47.8, which is below 50, indicates the sector is contracting. However, there was a quirk due to Labor Day falling so early in the month and the GM strike which is entering its fourth week. Most economists forecast the index to rise above 50 by next month.