The numbers indicate a coming recession

Michael Busler
3 min readApr 7, 2022

The jobs report is strong, but the economy is slowing with inflation and interest rates rising. A recession usually follows.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics just released its jobs report for March. It said total employment increased by 431,000. That means that for the first quarter of this year, about 1.6 million jobs were added. Although most economists are forecasting economic growth to be less than a 3% rate for the quarter, that may be a conservative estimate. In fact, the economy may be overheated.

While there are a number of other statistics that point to slow growth for the current quarter, it is difficult to imagine that the economy is experiencing slow growth while adding more than half a million jobs per month. The growth estimate for the first quarter will be released at the end of April. It may surprise the forecasters and show that economic growth is at least 4%.

The inflation number for last month will be released on April 12. All indications point to a monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index of a full 1%. That will increase the inflation rate for the last 12 months to well over 8%. Further, it is likely that the CPI for April, which will be released in mid-May, will also be 1%.

That will raise the 12-month inflation rate to at least 9%. It will also mark the first time since 1980 that the CPI has increased by at least 1% for two consecutive months. If that is the case, the economy is clearly overheated, meaning that the Federal Reserve must be more aggressive in changing its shockingly irresponsible monetary policy.

The Fed will likely raise interest rates by half a percent in April and continue to raise rates another four or five times before the end of the year. That means that interest rates will be at least 2% higher than they are today.

Because the Fed allowed interest rates to remain near zero for all of last year, even as inflation skyrocketed, its aggressive actions to reduce total demand in the economy may result in a slowing economy. The last time the country faced a similar circumstance was in 1981. The resulting high-interest rates took too much demand out of the economy, and a rather severe recession followed.

Michael Busler

Dr. Busler is an economist and a public policy analyst. He is a Professor of Finance at Stockton University. His op-ed columns appear in Townhall, Newsmax.